Bergevin was proactive on two fronts yesterday when he traded Erik Cole to the Dallas Stars for the expiring contract of Michael Ryder and a 3rd round pick in 2013. The goal? Help the Canadiens now and down the road, which is a far cry from the "NOW!" mentality this team has been obsessed with for so long.
The short view
With just 2 points in his last 11 games and only 1 road
point all season, a power play assist in game 3 vs. Washington, time
had run out for Erik Cole to get his game in gear. Being a slow starter might
have been acceptable in past years but Cole is now 34, the 2012-13 season is 40%
complete and the Canadiens play 10 of the next 14 on the road.
Bergevin was proactive to try and deal with the situation
before things potentially got ugly. While Ryder doesn’t bring the physical game
or room cred Cole does, the slot is his office space, he's equally responsible defensively and the Habs need goals,
now. Michael Ryder has 10 points in his last 11 games, half coming on the power
play with 7 of those games on the road while freeing up $1 million in cap space.
Clearly, there’s a lot of “now” at play here.
With the Habs playing 10 of the next 14 on the road while on
pace to score fewer even strength goals per game than last year, Bergevin
was right to act when he did, while the Habs try to do the near-impossible and sustain
the lowest level of even strength goals against not seen in the NHL for decades.
The long view
I believe the cost of continuing the wait for Erik Cole was
just too risky for Marc Bergevin, both in terms of standings and trade value. If
the next 14 games didn’t go well, and that might still happen, there would be
just 2 games left to play before the April 3rd trade deadline when
the Habs travel to Philly to play the Flyers.
If Cole continued his season-long funk, especially on the
road going into the trade deadline, and there’s little to suggest that wouldn’t
have happened, his value would be a fraction of what it is now.
With two more
years to go on a $4.5 million contract that’ll end when Cole is 36, that risk might
have been palatable to Bergevin if the cap remained on course for $80+ million
but now that it’s heading down to $64.3 with the new CBA, it was more likely to
cause acid reflux.
Future assets
Dallas message boards were largely expecting to receive a 2nd
or 3rd round draft pick from Montreal in addition to Erik Cole,
mainly because they were adding term and age to their roster. Makes sense in a
way so when it turned out the Habs were in fact getting a 3rd round
pick with Michael Ryder, there was the usual downplaying of its value. These
days, just 22% of 3rd round draft picks will go on to play 2 seasons
or more in the NHL so the downplaying is largely justified.
Fortunately for the Montreal Canadiens, they have Trevor
Timmins who has had success beating the odds at the draft table. His wheelhouse?
The 2nd and 3rd round. Timmins has been given nine 3rd
round picks to work with during his time in Montreal and has converted 8 of
them into Alexei Emelin, Ryan O’Byrne, Tim Bozon, Mac Bennett, Ryan White,
Yannick Weber, Steve Quailer, and Joonas Nattinen. By any measure, that’s
beating the house and with 6 picks this summer in rounds 1, 2, 2, 2, 3 and 3, Timmins
is positioned to deliver once again, assuming they keep most of their picks.
As for Michael Ryder who turns 33 next month, he’s probably
just a rental for the now while Marc Bergevin adds to the Habs draft stockpile
and plots how best to reinvest the money later. With about $12.5 million in cap
space already freed up for next year and Kaberle’s $4.25 million soon to be
added, the planets are aligning for Bergevin to do something big. Time to tread carefully.
