Habs Draft Preview - The Future Starts Now

Alex Galchenyuk - Plan A

With the Montreal Canadiens having their highest pick in the draft (that didn’t come via trade) since the Original Six era, new Habs GM Marc Bergevin is in a solid position to start the reload mandated by Geoff Molson with either Alex Galchenyuk or Filip Forsberg. I expect the Oilers to pick Nail Yakupov first overall and then trade for the puck-moving defensemen they desperately need with the likes of Magnus Paajarvi and Teemu Hartikainen as prime pieces of bait.

The Habs first choice is Alex Galchenyuk, for all the reasons that make him attractive to the Columbus Blue Jackets as well, who pick just ahead of the Canadiens. A frontline center who forecasts to remain at center in the NHL with excellent vision, strong passing skills, top 6 speed, heavy shot, give-a-damn quotient that’s off the charts… and a surgically repaired knee that’s been tested and retested to confirm it’s fully healed.

For a team on the rebound, what better way to start the climb than with a frontline center? And that’s what keeps Trevor Timmins up at night heading into the draft. What will Columbus do with their pick, knowing that Rick Nash’s time with the club is coming to an end in a package that’ll likely include a second or third line center and top 4 help on defense? I highly doubt Columbus would bundle the second pick so Habs fans can only hope they target Ryan Murray or Filip Forsberg instead.

Filip Forsberg - Plan B

For the Habs, the consolation prize won’t be anything like losing out to Winnipeg on Shane Doan for Terry Ryan in 1995, a miss that required a wall to be patched to remove the dent created by a flying clock, the nearest object within reach at the time that thankfully missed the TV.

This time however, should Galchenyuk be off the board, Montreal will gladly send up Trevor Timmins and most of their new-car smell front office to welcome Filip Forsberg into the organization, filling a Montreal-sized sinkhole at left wing. With the Islanders potentially having pick of the litter in Murray, Reinhart, Dumba and Reilly, I can’t see the Habs trading down and still getting Forsberg as Toronto, Anaheim, Minnesota and Carolina will all pick him if given the chance.

Round One - Mock Draft

As for the rest of the first round, I’ve filled out my bracket like everyone else so we’ll see how the inevitable trades affect it, with the likelihood especially ripe this time around. Mikhail Grigorenko will fall but likely not out of the first half of round one. A lot of the concern being thrown around surrounds his work ethic which smacks of the pack mentality Sean Couturier had to endure last year but the prime concern I have with Grigorenko is that his marginal faceoff ability might mean an eventual shift to the wing and that could drop him below the long term potential impact of Radek Faksa and Zemgus Girgensons.

The Canadiens have great interest in Stephan Matteau should he fall into round two and may be tempted to trade into the bottom third of round one to get him. There’s a concerted effort underway, not just to improve the size of the club but it’s give-a-damn quotient and their ability to project their will on the road, especially in the playoffs when hits per team jump from about 20 in the regular season to 35-40. Other teams that’ll also have interest in Matteau would be Pittsburgh, Boston, St. Louis, Phoenix and obviously, the New York Rangers.

Among the goaltenders selected in round one, it’s hard to imagine more than three being taken. Logic dictates that the first goalie drafted should be Andrei Vasilevski by the Chicago Blackhawks. Regardless of the surname, the Boston Bruins should be tempted to select Malcolm Subban and if they don’t, I expect the New Jersey Devils will. As much as the Subban name is spit in Boston, there’s still a better chance they draft him than Henrik Samuelsson, son of Ulf, destroyer of knees, hips and thighs.

#	TEAM	PLAYER	POS
1	EDM	Nail Yakupov	RW
2	CBJ	Alex Galchenyuk	C
3	MTL	Filip Forsberg	LW
4	NYI	Ryan Murray	D
5	TOR	Griffin Reinhart	D
6	ANA	Teuvo Teravainen	LW
7	MIN	Mathew Dumba	D
8	CAR	Morgan Rielly	D
9	WPG	Jacob Trouba	D
10	TAM	Olli Maatta	D
11	WAS	Radek Faksa	C
12	BUF	Zemgus Girgensons	C
13	DAL	Cody Ceci	D
14	CAL	Mikhail Grigorenko	C
15	OTT	Brendan Gaunce	C
16	WAS	Hampus Lindholm	D
17	SJS	Thomas Wilson	RW
18	CHI	Andrei Vasilevski	G
19	TAM	Slater Koekkoek	D
20	PHI	Derrick Pouliot	D
21	BUF	Tomas Hertl	C
22	PIT	Stefan Matteau	C
23	FLA	Matthew Finn	D
24	BOS	Malcolm Subban	G
25	STL	Sebastien Collberg	RW
26	VAN	Brady Skeji	D
27	PHO	Scott Laughton	C
28	NYR	Phillip Di Giuseppe	LW
29	NJD	Oscar Dansk	G
30	LAK	Michael Matheson	D

The Path Forward

In terms of organizational needs, the Canadiens need more prospects at center and left wing with a top 6 skillset and size to match. If the Habs want to make it back into the playoffs and gun for home-ice advantage, it’ll require winning on the road and teams built to win on the road also tend to win at home. The reverse cannot be said.

That requires a roster with the size, skill and compete level to endure line matching on the road with the knowledge that only about a quarter of road teams get a surplus amount of power play time. Add to the fact that power play opportunities overall have declined every year since the lockout and are now well below levels not seen since prior to the NHL publicly tracking them in 1997. 

These days, winning games means winning the even strength battle, decisively, complimented by a strong penalty kill for the road and a power play capable of making the difference on home-ice. Anything less puts all the pressure on the defense and goaltending and history has shown that teams trying to win four, seven game series and the Stanley Cup are rare events.

For teams like the Habs, trying to slice their even-strength differential meat so thin you can see through it and win games with special teams, it's going to take a paradigm shift throughout the organization for anything to change long term.

The Habs also need to start taking goaltending depth seriously again and restock the system with NHL calibre prospects in case Carey Price ever sustains a major injury. A key component of the Habs goaltending success throughout their history has been their constant desire to find The Next One, no matter who was currently number one in Montreal, knowing it could take a decade of mining to find the next gem.

If the Canadiens are to reload and compete over the long term, it starts on Friday and by doing it the Sam Pollock way; acquiring a volume of top 3 round picks to overcome the high failure rate of kids being drafted into a game played by men and not trading them away for the futility of chasing the last playoff spot near the trade deadline.