The Impact of Declining Power Plays

David Desharnais leads Habs with 17 Power Play points

I’ve been discussing the declining number of power plays in the post-lockout era and the dangers for teams built with a heavy reliance on them for over a year now, so I thought I’d take a different approach to demonstrate what’s happening across the NHL.

Looking at the NHL’s Top 100 point producers each season, before and after the lockout, exposes a stunning pattern when their collective stats are averaged out to an 82 game season.

Power play point production of the NHL's best is on pace this season to drop 43% since the lockout ended and continuing a downward trend into territory not seen in decades. Meanwhile, even strength point production is on pace to rise 12% since the lockout and is continuing its slow, upwards trend.

Excluding the power play all-you-can-eat buffet that was the 2005-06 season , the Top 100 typically see about 62% of their points come at even strength, 36% from the power play and 2% shorthanded in a given year. If the pace holds, the Top 100 this season will produce about 69% of their points at even strength with less than 30% coming on the power play.

The sharp decline in the Top 100’s power play points is a direct result of fewer penalties being called, not shooting percentages or other nonsense people used to justify weak arguments. There simply isn’t anywhere near as many penalties being called in the first place. In fact, you’d have to go back almost 30 years to find teams averaging less than 3.37 power plays a game, a staggering 42% decline since the lockout ended.

The obvious result is a lot more of the game is now being spent at even strength and the Top 100 are getting a greater percentage of their points from it. Meanwhile, players who historically relied on heavy power play minutes to generate 40%+ of their point totals have been suffering. Badly.

You’d be hard pressed to survive a high fall from the angle of decline already present when GM Bob Gainey and Pierre Gauthier retooled prior to the 2009-10 season. Jacques Martin had significant input over the players he wanted for a system dependent upon special teams and goaltending, including Scott Gomez. Small, fast, open-ice players who’d keep the opposition honest with a potent power play. What power play?

Marching in lock-step with fewer power plays and fewer power play points for the NHL’s top offensive players has been the sharp decline in the average number of power play goals being scored per game.

Teams are on pace to average 44% fewer power play goals scored per game since the lockout and yet again, you’d have to go back decades to find a time when teams were forced to score more at even strength to win hockey games than they are now.

For a team like the Montreal Canadiens that’s consistently been in the top echelon of the most power play dependant teams in the NHL, they face the likelihood that within 2 years, teams will be trying to win games while averaging just 1 power play goal every 2 games.

Talk of power play success rates and shooting percentages are near pointless when you stand back and look at the larger problem and if the Habs don’t have a full understanding of the NHL landscape when they retool this time, talk of lottery picks might become a lot more common.